Author: Bill Campbell

  • Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)

    The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is a measure of the degree of concentration in an industry; it is defined as: \[HHI\ =\ \sum_{i=1}^n MS_i^2\] where: \(n\): number of firms in the industry \(MS_i\): market share of firm i (Technically, if there are more than 50 firms in the industry, the HHI sums over only the largest…

  • Macaulay Duration, Modified Duration, and Effective Duration

    In this article I’ll cover three quantities that go by the name of “duration”: Macaulay duration Modified duration Effective duration I’ll explain how each type of duration is calculated, the characteristics of each type of duration, the similarities and differences amongst the types of duration, and how they are used in practice. Types of Duration…

  • Sample Standard Deviation

    In comparing the formulae for the standard deviation of a population: \[\sigma\ =\ \sqrt{\frac{\sum_{i=1}^N \left(X_i\ –\ \mu_X\right)^2}{N}}\] and the standard deviation of a sample: \[s\ =\ \sqrt{\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n \left(X_i\ –\ \bar X\right)^2}{n\ –\ 1}}\] the obvious difference that strikes one immediately is the for the population standard deviation the denominator is the population size – \(N\)…

  • Kurtosis

    Kurtosis is generally viewed as a measure of peakedness of a probability distribution (how tall the center of the distribution is compared to, say, a normal distribution); the taller (and thinner) the center peak, the higher the kurtosis.  Another way of describing kurtosis is as a measure of how fat the tails (extreme ends, positive…

  • Skewness

    Skewness of a probability distribution is a measure of its asymmetry; the higher the (absolute value of the) skewness, the more asymmetric the distribution.  Symmetric distributions have skewness of zero.  The formula for the skewness of a sample is: \[skewness\ =\ \frac{n}{\left(n\ -\ 1\right)\left(n\ -\ 2\right)}\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n \left(X_i\ –\ \bar X\right)^3}{s^3}\ ≈\ \frac1n\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n \left(X_i\ –\ \bar…

  • Simple Income Statement

    A useful skill to develop is that of writing out a quick, simple, general income statement. Here is an example that you should be able to reproduce in 10 – 15 seconds during the exam: \begin{align}&\ \ Sales\\ &\underline{–\ COGS}\\ &=\ Gross\ Profit\\ &\underline{–\ SG\&A}\\ &=\ EBITDA\\ &–\ Depreciation\\ &\underline{–\ Amortization}\\ &=\ EBIT\\ &\underline{–\ Interest}\\…

  • Calculating Forward Rates (from Spot Rates)

    A forward interest rate is a discount rate that takes a single payment at one point in the future and discounts it to another (nearer) time in the future; they have their own special notation.  For example, if we’re measuring time in years, the discount rate that would take a payment 6 years from now…

  • Bayes’ Formula

    Bayes’ Formula is frequently presented in statistics texts as important (it is), profound (it isn’t, particularly), and difficult (it isn’t, remotely).  If you understand conditional probability, then Bayes’ Formula is trivial.  Let me show you: We start with the probability of two events, A and B: \[P(AB)\ =\ P(A|B)\ ×\ P(B)\] Similarly, for the probability…

  • Pricing Derivatives

    Pricing derivatives – forwards, futures, FRAs, and swaps – is generally not difficult, and the principle that underlies all pricing relationships is quite easy: arbitrage. The first thing you need to know is exactly what is meant by the price of a derivative. The price of: A forward/futures contract is the agreed price of the…

  • Pricing FRAs

    An FRA is essentially an agreement to enter into two loans (one long, one short) in the future: a fixed-rate loan and a floating-rate loan.  (The difference between an FRA and an actual agreement to enter into these two loans is that the FRA will be settled at the beginning of the loan period, whereas…